The Reality of Realignment: College Football Part 1

It’s finally happening. It should have been obvious once conference championship games started becoming the norm for college football. Let’s just say, the signs have all been pointing toward this very time, when conference alignments would fall to the wayside and geography and branding power would step forward as the real powers driving such affiliations.

This will send shockwaves not just through a few conferences but the alignment of college athletics as we know it. With so many reports, it may be hard to decipher where the truth lies.

Let me take you down the rabbit hole one step at a time.

Nebraska has likely just become the first domino in the effect. They will be blamed for the downfall of the Big 12 and the traditional Big 8, but they were the ones who were forced out. There are three reasons why Nebraska will be a member of the Big 10 by Friday: The fir$t i$ $o obvious$ that I won’t in$ult your intelligence. The second was the basic formation of the conference. Nebraska’s greatest traditional football rivalry was against the Sooners of Oklahoma. That rivalry was a large part of what gave the Big 8 its national prominence for decades. When the Big 12 decided to split that rivalry amongst two divisions, Nebraska was left scrambling to find a new rival. Although Colorado, Mizzou and K-State have all had runs at the top of the North, they simply can’t match the branding power and tradition of Oklahoma. The new conference affiliation effectively ended Nebraska’s greatest rivalry. The third was the power structure in place for the Big 12. The combination of Texas and Oklahoma clearly dominate decision making processes for the conference. It puts Nebraska in a tough situation because prominent events (such as conference championship games) moved away from near-by Kansas City to locations such as Dallas. The focus of the entire conference was shifted from Nebraska to the South.

So Nebraska, with no major rival and the ability to make a boatload more money will join the Big 10. There “may not be an invitation to join” just yet, but Big 10 brass have made it clear that they want to expand. Nebraska is an obvious choice geographically, academically and financially and likely already has an invitation to join. All Nebraska needs to do is RSVP.

If adding the Cornhuskers would make a 12 team conference, why would the Big 10 want to add Missouri as well? It all comes down to courting the Fighting Irish.

If Notre Dame were to be the only member to join the Big 10, they would likely be placed in the same conference as Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Northwestern due to general proximity. That means Notre Dame wouldn’t play their rivals Michigan and Michigan State every year, nor would they play powerhouses such as Ohio State and Penn State. Don’t forget that Purdue and Indiana — no matter how unimportant on the national scene — have a long-standing rivalry (and remember the reason Nebraska is accepting this invitation in the first place). The Big 10 certainly has the forward thinking vision to avoid such a situation. If both Nebraska and Missouri were to join the Big 10, it would offer an attractive divisional alignment for Notre Dame likely consisting of their in-state rivals Purdue and Indiana as well as Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State.

At the end of the day, the Big 10 will land the largest prize of all in Notre Dame, alongside Nebraska and Missouri. Then they will watch the Big 12 dissolve.

Of course, the Pac 10 is more than willing to pick up the scraps. They will land 6 more teams to create the mega conference of the original Pac 8 vs. everyone to the East. It just isn’t the six they’re talking about.

Of course Texas and Oklahoma, along with their sister schools Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will all clearly get invites, but I have a hard time seeing where Colorado finds themselves in this new super-conference. Clearly, Texas legislators among others will pressure the Pac 10 into taking Baylor over Colorado. Their leverage is simple: either take on Baylor or forget about the Longhorns. The Pac 10, whose only real interest in this expansion is UT, will have no choice but to add the Bears.

This isn’t the end, however. With a batch of schools now without conference affiliation and two major conferences now threatened by expanding competition this domino effect has only begun.

Next Time: The SEC starts getting jealous and the Mountain West picks up the scraps.

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