The Reality of Realignment: College Football Part 2

Obviously, you’ve heard the news that Colorado has accepted a bid to join the Pac 10. This, along with the fact that Nebraska has all but accepted an invitation to the Big 10 and USC has just been banned from the postseason for two years, means the other five target schools in Texas, A&M, Tech, Oklahoma and OK State will all join the Pac 10 within the week. I guess I failed to realize just how big the Denver television market really is. That said, aside from switching Baylor with the Buffaloes, all other changes posted in Part 1 will stand.

That means Notre Dame and Texas, the two biggest prizes in this realignment scenario have already been scooped up by the Big 10 and Pac 10 respectively. This also leaves a whole bevy of former Big 12 schools with no ground to stand on.

So where do Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Iowa State go? This is where any scenario starts getting difficult to decipher.

The Mountain West, who’ve been fighting for a BCS assignment since the beginning of last decade currently has a nine member conference. In order to play a championship game, they would need three more members. These Big 12 rejects would fit well within the conference.

But the Mountain West isn’t the new driving force in conference realignment. Say hello to a shunned giant known as the SEC.

With the Pac and Big 10′s stealing college football headlines from the best conference in the nation, the SEC has no choice but to make it’s move into the realm of “super conferences.” This raises two questions: First off, who would the SEC be interested in adding from the ACC, Big East or former Big 12 members. Secondly, how many new teams will the SEC want to add.

Obviously the most important conference in college football will desire to at least match the new “Big 14″ in numbers, meaning that two new schools will assuredly be added. Without question, the two most obvious choices are Miami and Florida State.  Not only due to proximity, but also the chance to command an entire state’s television market. Such an alignment might be too good of an offer to pass up.

However, What if the SEC wants to challenge the Pac 10 and add four new schools? Who else would receive invitations under that scenario?

There are two routes for the SEC to go: either they add two more schools in states that already have conference membership, or they look to expand their reach. Two schools in SEC states that have a real opportunity to  receive such invitations are Clemson (which would bring a solid football program and the South Carolina/Clemson rivalry to the conference) and Louisville (bringing the Louisville/Kentucky rivalry to their conference). Each school is already located in an SEC state, making for a seamless transition. However, neither school has command over a major media market, meaning their inclusion would separate that invisible “pie” amongst more schools for a lesser gain.

But what if the SEC expanded west? If the conference is presented a chance to add either Baylor, TCU or both schools in a market which would create direct competition with the newly formed “Pac 16,” could it really pass that up?

All in all, expect the SEC to expand to 16 teams. This is the best conference in college football. Such a distinction is extremely difficult to receive and I can’t imagine the SEC just letting it go for no good reason. The SEC will accept Miami, Florida State, Clemson and Baylor within a month. All four of those schools would add a significant football presence and allow the conference to finally reach into the Texas market. (Which they’ve been trying to do by recruiting Texas A&M for years)

So where does the Mountain West go? Simply put, the chance to add Kansas and Kansas State, most importantly for their basketball programs, would be a huge boon to the conference. Bringing in Boise State would create the necessary  buzz amongst the college football ranks for the Mountain West to potentially join the BCS.

Therefore, the Mountain West can have it’s conference championship, BCS membership and increased market value for their basketball conference. They have no reason to expand any farther.

The next biggest schools the Mountain West could potentially add include Iowa State and Hawaii. Neither are in particularly attractive media markets.

So Kansas, K-State and Baylor all have homes, but what happens to Iowa State? They begin to pray the Big 10 wants to expand even farther or Missouri’s invitation finds its way to Ames. Their media market and geography make them a hard sell to any conference looking to increase its school’s revenue.

Next Time: The ACC looks to repair and Iowa State looks for any signs of hope.

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