The Reality of Realignment: The “I finish this shit before everyone changes their mind again” final post

I tried to take it a step at a time. What I tried to do was take the most logical steps that were being presented by the big wigs of college football in what seemed like a massive realignment circus. It looked like “Land of the Super Conferences” was well underway.

And then Texas took a shit all over my concept. After Nebraska scattered to obvious higher ground (Big Ten) from a drowning conference and Colorado made the first move in what looked to be the Pac 10 sweepstakes it seemed all but inevitable.

But alas, the nearly $10 million Texas will make with its own football network was enough to keep the Longhorns from budging… for now.

Although it would seem the Big 12 (Big 10?) is theoretically saved, problems will arise when this new look Big 12 goes to the bargaining table for a major contract. They’ve just lost one of the most die-hard football fan bases in the Cornhuskers and two major media markets for football. I’m not talking about Omaha, either, I’m talking about both the Denver and Kansas City markets, which have now been taken over by the Pac 10 (Pac 12?) and Big Ten (Big North?) conferences, respectively.

Texas seems to think they are worth their weight in gold. They’re about to find out that: A. Only Notre Dame can get away with receiving big media contracts due to black magic and having a fan base literally nation wide; B. Those millions of fair weather fans can make them millions more in television revenue and; C. Iowa State and Missouri won’t brings butts to the seats or bucks from the networks.

What should make haters of the land where “everything’s bigger” laugh at this thought is Texas may have just pinned itself into a losing situation.

When it was first announced that Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and OK State would not join, I just assumed the Pac 10 would wait patiently for Longhorns and Co. to realize their mistake when negotiations began. Instead they sent a warning shot: accepting Utah into their newly expanded conference.

Utah can’t and won’t provide the boost in ratings, viewer ship and financial gain adding Texas or Oklahoma can. In fact, adding Utah seems opposite of what the Pac 10’s initial expansion goal was. This means that the conference will have a readily available expansion plan if Texas continues to waffle.

Don’t get me wrong, “Super Conferences” are coming. They’ll likely be here by 2013-2014 by the latest. However, the next steps in the realignment now rest in the hands of Notre Dame and Texas. Both will eventually realize how much more money they can make in these super conferences and the state of Texas will pine to host a college football championship game sooner rather than later (NCAA regulations state that a conference must have twelve teams to host a conference championship game. By the way, I can‘t wait for the Big North title in the world‘s most exciting city: Indianapolis).

So as Notre Dame and Texas wait, certain schools and conferences will have to sweat it out for the next few months.

What makes this entire saga so captivating is the team whose mouth started it all, Missouri, is walking on eggshells hoping the new Big 12 stays together. All because Mizzou tried a little too hard in impressing the Big 10 that the suitor eventually rejected the Tigers. The Big 10 already controls both of Missouri’s big media markets with Illinois and Nebraska, why add the Tigers for no conceivable reason.

Iowa State, on the other hand, now has every reason to be excited. The new Big North will have to attract at least one more team west of the Illinois/Indiana border to entice Notre Dame to finally take the plunge. Notre Dame must be in the same division as other eastern football powerhouses such as Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State to appease the Irish’s sizeable New York City fan base. The Cyclones are a likely candidate to fill that role in the west, bringing the tradition of Iowa/Iowa State rivalry to the Big North and effectively dominating an entire state’s major sports media coverage.

Missouri’s only hope when the new Big 12 eventually dissolves is that the Big North dips into the Big East for a 15th squad, giving them hope to join in as the 16th and final member of the northern super league.

Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are all in the same boat as Texas. All three of these schools have major rivalries with not only each other but also the Longhorns. Eventually it would seem these schools would join a newly formed Pac 16 within a year or two. However, these three and Texas aren’t entirely out of other options. There is always the chance that the SEC could entice those schools to join their conference. Even if talks with Texas fall through, you know damn well that Texas A&M will eventually join an expanded SEC long before the Big 12 takes its final shit on the college sporting world. It’s doubtful that the Aggies could convince the Sooners (who are joined to the hip with Texas for this whole affair) and Cowboys (who are joined to the hip of OU and therefore the Longhorns as well) to make their way to the great south, but a lost fan base of Baylor fans could easily find themselves in an expanded SEC.

However, the fate of the Bears is not nearly as certain as A&M. Adding the Aggies would give the SEC another major media market (Houston) and built in rivalries with former Southwest conference member Arkansas and border rival LSU. Adding Baylor would simply be a service to Texas A&M, because the Bears bring neither a major profile or media market (let alone a good football program) to the football-centric conference.

So, in the likelihood that Longhorns and Co. make their move to the Pac 16 and Notre Dame makes their leap into the Big North, the SEC will have no choice but to expand.

Miami, Florida State and Clemson, along with a newly acquired Aggies of Texas A&M would make perfect new additions to the conference. While it may seem crazy that the trio of Florida, Florida State and Miami would ever be in the same conference (as being in separate conferences are one of their greatest recruiting tools), there is a looming giant in a major media market known as South Florida that may force their hands. Remember those “Big 4” billboards in the sunshine state last year? The Bulls wouldn’t mean shit if the other big three are in college football’s premier conference.

Clemson is simply reclaiming the first place prize in South Carolina after taking a consolation in the Gamecocks all those years ago. Clemson’s addition provides the added bonus of another intrastate rivalry.

This leaves an interesting mess for Kansas and Kansas State. These are two BCS football programs and major college basketball programs looking for a new home. Along with Baylor, the Mountain West would have a golden opportunity to expand to anywhere from 12 to 16 teams. With Utah leaving the conference and consistent BCS busters Boise State set to join, the MWC will still be at 9 teams. Adding The Jayhawks, Wildcats and Bears of Baylor could get them to twelve while adding three more BCS football programs. Also, Baylor could begin a new rivalry with fellow Texas member TCU.

But what if the Mountain West looked to expand further? If Missouri is left in the cold from the new Big North, they would be an obvious expansion choice. However, I don’t see the Big North stopping at just 14 teams.

When the SEC expands, the ACC will likely lose teams and attempt to regain a 12 team membership by adding from the Big East. This would leave Big North state rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati ripe for the picking. Although the Bearcats would be a great addition to the Big North, I can only imagine the shit-fit Ohio State would throw over the addition of another team from their state. That means that the Panthers and Mizzou Tigers would likely make up teams 15 and 16 of the Big North.

This leaves the Mountain West with a couple of options to get to 14 or 16 teams. They could add traditional Texas programs Houston, UTEP or SMU from Conference USA. They could also further disintegrate the WAC by taking Hawaii, Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico State, or even San Jose State. The resume for each of the aforementioned teams is nearly identical.

The ACC will likely expand in a similar fashion following the loss of its Florida and South Carolina football powerhouses. Big East teams such as West Virginia, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Connecticut, Rutgers and Louisville would all be good fits in the expanded conference. Per chance the ACC will look to add other Sunshine State programs such as USF or Central Florida to their league. Even C-USA teams such as Eastern Carolina, Memphis, and Marshall could all be potential new members as well.

Unfortunately, this entire cluster-fuck only leads to the inevitability of smaller profile schools being left either without a conference entirely or in a newly gutted former conference.

What will happen with schools such as Tulane, Southern Miss, and UAB? Clearly their profiles are far too low for inclusion in the SEC, but could they truthfully put together a decent football conference with WAC rejects such as Louisiana Tech, and Rice among others and Sun Belt standouts such as Troy or Western Kentucky. What will happen to Louisville and Cincinatti if Big North or ACC invited never come. Can they join and lead the MAC to major success? Can they scrounge together other rejected teams from the former WAC, like Utah State and Idaho to put together a smaller “Super Conference.”

Hell, all of the rejects from the WAC, C-USA and Big East, along with standouts from the MAC and Sun Belt could band together to form one nationwide conference as a sort of subsidiary to the other 6 major conferences or even potentially a seventh BCS conference.

I could complain about the obvious money grab college football programs are making, but that would be another voice in that already overwhelming choir. This massive realignment scenario is no longer possibility, its probability. The landscape of college football, as well as other major college sports, will change drastically over the next few years.

Just be happy that we’re here to see and bitch about it before the dust settles.